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Thursday, May 15, 2008

Bag of Oranges

So you’re at the grocery store buying a bag of oranges. The oranges are pre-bagged and all bags are sold at the sameprice. All bags have the same number of oranges, but they don’t weigh the same. You wouldn’t like to be cheated, or in other words, to not buy a bag below the median weight. You begin by grabbing a bag with each hand to compare them. Once you decide on the heavier one you discard the one that feels lighter, keeping the one that feels heavier in your other hand, and pick up another bag with your free hand to make another comparison and continue the process. Given that you’re right about which bag is heavier 90% of the time and assuming for simplicity’s sake your chances of misjudging the heavier of two bags are independent of their weight difference, how many bags will you have to pick up to be 85% certain you’re not being cheated? (Note: The number of bags to choose from is very large and there are no bags

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